By Anuj Misra
February 26, 2026
Overview
As of close of business yesterday, February 25th, there are 864,692 Texans who have voted early in the Democratic primary and 779,768 who have voted early in the Republican primary.[1] Being an open primary state, Texan voters are allowed to choose which primary they want to vote in, when they go to their polling station. Many are paying close attention to the Senate race, where there are important primaries on both sides. Senator John Cornyn, who has won his last 4 elections by double digits, is running for a 5th term, but this time he is fending off a challenge in the Republican primary from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Congressman Wesley Hunt, from Houston. All 3 are campaigning on their strong alliance with President Donald Trump and his Make America Great Again (MAGA) agenda. While many expected this GOP primary to dominate the news cycle, the early voting numbers show that voters appear more interested in the Democratic primary, between Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, from Dallas and Texas Congressman James Talarico, who represents part of Austin and Pflugerville in the Texas legislature.
Rise of Talarico
Prior to the beginning of early voting on February 17th, most polls favored Crockett in the Democratic primary.[2] However, Talarico appears to have picked up momentum since his interview with CBS’s late night television host Stephen Colbert 10 days ago on the 16th, the day before early voting began. Colbert claims that CBS prohibited him from interviewing Talarico on his show, so he conducted the interview on his YouTube channel. CBS denies Colbert’s claims and made a statement, “The show was provided legal guidance that the broadcast could trigger the FCC equal-time rule for two other candidates, including Rep. Jasmine Crockett, and presented options for how the equal time for other candidates could be fulfilled.”[3]Within 24 hours of the interview airing, the Talarico campaign amassed an additional $2.5 million and 4,000 new volunteers. The YouTube video currently has 9 million views, and he has been drawing large crowds in some of the reddest parts of Texas, like the city of Lubbock, where Texas Tech University is located.[4]Trump won Lubbock County by 40 points in the 2024 election.
And today, more good news came out for Talarico. A Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll that was conducted entirely yesterday, has Talarico running 6 points ahead of Crockett, with 48% favoring him, 44% favoring her, and 10% unsure.[5] No respondents said that they would vote for the other candidate in the Democratic primary, Ahmad Hassan. 55% of the 599 respondents also said that they had already voted early. Internet bettors are also paying attention, and Polymarket currently gives Talarico a 70% chance of winning.[6]
Screenshot from Polymarket at 4 PM CST on February 26, 2026
What Does All This Mean?
Not surprisingly, many Democrats are wondering if this may be their year, especially if this early voting trend continues and if Democrats wind up with more overall votes than Republicans in the primaries. People in both parties are also waiting to see if their primary will go to a runoff, which occurs when nobody wins at least 50% of the vote. Regardless of who the nominees are from each party, it is interesting to examine which party has had higher turnout in historical primaries and how it has impacted general elections each time. Throughout most of the 20th century, Texas was largely a one-party state which voted solidly Democratic in both presidential and midterm elections. However, Texas voted Republican in the 1980 presidential election for Ronald Reagan and has stayed in the red column in presidential elections ever since. Texas has also remained red in gubernatorial and senate elections, ever since electing Governor George W. Bush and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison in 1994. And ever since 1998, Republicans have swept in all races in every election cycle, both presidential and midterm.
However, Democrats have not been completely shut out in primary turnout. Most notably, Democratic turnout in 2008 was more than double that of Republicans in the competitive primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, where 193 Texas delegates were at stake. Obama went on to win the Democratic nomination and presidency, but in the general election, he lost Texas by double digits to Senator John McCain. More recently, Democrats had a higher turnout than Republicans in the 2020 primaries, but that was largely because only the Democratic primary was competitive. At the time, Trump was running unopposed for a second term as the GOP presidential candidate, while several Democrats were running in the primary, so they could face him in the general election. Similarly, Joe Biden won the Texas primary, Democratic nomination, and 2020 presidential election, but Trump won the state of Texas by a 5.6% margin.
While Democrats have continued to sometimes match or exceed Republicans in primary turnout in presidential elections, they have not had a higher turnout than Republicans in midterm elections since 2002. Interestingly, they had a higher primary turnout than Republicans in every midterm election between 1970 and 2002, including the ones in which they lost the general election, but ever since 2006, they have fell short to Republicans, both in primary turnout and the general election.
| Year | Election Type | Elections | GOP Primary Turnout | Dem Primary Turnout | Primary Voters % GOP | Primary Voters % Dem | General Election Winners in Texas |
| 1970 | midterm | governor/senator | 109,021 | 1,011,300 | 9.73% | 90.27% | Governor: SmithSenate: Bentsen |
| 1972 | presidential | president/governor/senator | 114,007 | 2,192,903 | 4.94% | 95.06% | President: NixonGovernor: BriscoeSenate: Tower |
| 1974 | midterm | governor only | 69,101 | 1,521,306 | 4.34% | 95.66% | Governor: Briscoe |
| 1976 | presidential | president/senator | 356,307 | 1,529,168 | 18.90% | 81.10% | President: CarterSenate: Bentsen |
| 1978 | midterm | governor/senator | 158,403 | 1,812,896 | 8.04% | 91.96% | Governor: ClementsSenate: Tower |
| 1980 | presidential | president only | 526,769 | 1,377,767 | 27.66% | 72.34% | President: Reagan |
| 1982 | midterm | governor/senator | 265,794 | 1,318,663 | 16.78% | 83.22% | Governor: WhiteSenate: Bentsen |
| 1984 | presidential | president/senator | 336,814 | 1,463,449 | 18.71% | 81.29% | President: ReaganSenate: Gramm |
| 1986 | midterm | governor only | 544,719 | 1,096,552 | 33.19% | 66.81% | Governor: Clements |
| 1988 | presidential | president/senator | 1,014,956 | 1,767,045 | 36.48% | 63.52% | President: GHW BushSenate: Bentsen |
| 1990 | midterm | governor/senator | 855,231 | 1,487,260 | 36.51% | 63.49% | Governor: RichardsSenate: Gramm |
| 1992 | presidential | president only | 797,146 | 1,482,075 | 34.97% | 65.03% | President: GHW Bush |
| 1994 | midterm | governor/senator | 557,340 | 1,036,944 | 34.96% | 65.04% | Governor: GW BushSenate: Hutchison |
| 1996 | presidential | president/senator | 1,019,803 | 921,256 | 52.54% | 47.46% | President: DoleSenate: Gramm |
| 1998 | midterm | governor only | 596,839 | 664,532 | 47.32% | 52.68% | Governor: GW Bush |
| 2000 | presidential | president/senator | 1,126,757 | 786,890 | 58.88% | 41.12% | President: GW BushSenate: Hutchison |
| 2002 | midterm | governor/senator | 622,423 | 1,003,388 | 38.28% | 61.72% | Governor: PerrySenate: Cornyn |
| 2004 | presidential | president only | 687,615 | 839,231 | 45.03% | 54.97% | President: GW Bush |
| 2006 | midterm | governor/senator | 655,919 | 508,602 | 56.33% | 43.67% | Governor: PerrySenate: Hutchison |
| 2008 | presidential | president/senator | 1,362,322 | 2,874,986 | 32.15% | 67.85% | President: McCainSenate: Cornyn |
| 2010 | midterm | governor only | 1,484,542 | 680,548 | 68.57% | 31.43% | Governor: Perry |
| 2012 | presidential | president/senator | 1,449,477 | 590,164 | 71.07% | 28.93% | President: RomneySenate: Cruz |
| 2014 | midterm | governor/senator | 1,358,074 | 560,033 | 70.80% | 29.20% | Governor: AbbottSenate: Cornyn |
| 2016 | presidential | president/senator | 2,836,488 | 1,435,895 | 66.39% | 33.61% | President: Trump |
| 2018 | midterm | governor/senator | 1,549,573 | 1,068,463 | 59.19% | 40.81% | Governor: AbbottSenate: Cruz |
| 2020 | presidential | president/senator | 2,017,167 | 2,094,428 | 49.06% | 50.94% | President: TrumpSenate: Cornyn |
| 2022 | midterm | governor only | 1,954,172 | 1,075,601 | 64.50% | 35.50% | Governor: Abbott |
| 2024 | presidential | president/senator | 2,323,019 | 982,069 | 70.29% | 29.71% | President: TrumpSenate: Cruz |
Texas Primary Election Turnout Between 1970 and 2024
So now in 2026, Democrats all have the same question. If they break the midterm curse and have a higher primary turnout than Republicans, then are they on track to win either the senatorial or gubernatorial races in November? Given that Texas remains a red state, they would still face an uphill battle. However, it would signal a significant level of enthusiasm from Texas Democrats and suggest that the midterms may be more competitive this year than in the past several cycles.
[1] https://goelect.txelections.civixapps.com/ivis-evr-ui/evr
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/texas-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
[3] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stephen-colbert-slams-cbs-again-james-talarico-interview/
[4] https://time.com/7381394/james-talarico-jasmine-crockett-texas-primary-democrats/
[5]https://mrstatistician.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/fed7b-texasdemocraticresults2.25.pdf
[6] https://polymarket.com/event/texas-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Statistically Significant News 
Leave a comment